On the first day of launching this problem we kicked it off by playing the lottery together. Mr. Anatole offered to give us $20 if we didn't risk it but even more extra credit if we took the chance and won the lottery.
My initial guess for the odds of winning the CA Super Lotto was 1 out of every 15 million people. But I decided not to risk it and get my free extra credit points. Turns out, I made the right decision because everyone who did decide to risk it didn't win.